Allies want Lalu limping back to power

PATNA: If Lalu Prasad''s RJD manages towin the Bihar elections next month, he will create history by winning four timesin a row, a record second to only the unbeaten Left Front run in WestBengal.But two important things have happened since the lastassembly elections in 2000. One, Bihar has got divided into two states.Two, the secular alliance, led by the RJD, has completely crumbledin the state despite still sharing the spoils of power at theCentre.It is advantage Lalu, as far as the first factor isconcerned. The division of the state may have adversely affected the economy ofBihar but was a political boon in disguise for him, notwithstanding his famouscomment that "Bihar will be divided over my dead body".Apopulation-based research done by the Patna-based Asian Development ResearchInstitute (ADRI) shows that out of the total 131 seats in undivided Bihar whichhad a Muslim-Yadav component of more than 30 per cent, as many as 119 are now inBihar and barely 12 in Jharkhand.There are, of course, other statistics to backthis claim that Lalu has emerged stronger in a smaller Bihar. According to ananalysis carried out by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), theRJD''s share of votes in undivided Bihar in the 2000 assembly elections was 28.17per cent, as compared to 32.70 per cent, if one were to take in considerationonly those areas which now constitute new Bihar. The second factor,however, is dragging down the RJD''s prospects even if we were to use the ratherbenign terminology of "friendly fights" in more than half the total of 243 seatswhere the Congress and the Left parties are locked in battles with the RJD.Plus, there is also a resurgent Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) whose supremo RamVilas Paswan considers Lalu his main adversary despite both being Unionministers.In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, a grand alliance wasforged between the Congress, RJD and LJP which altogether got 43.4 per cent ofthe votes (RJD 30.7, LJP 8.2 and Congress 4.5). The alliance bagged 29 out of 40seats, handing out a crushing defeat to the BJP-JD(U) combine.Thekey to the success of the RJD-led alliance was that the upper caste base of theCongress, the Dalit base of the LJP and the MY combination of the RJD gottransferred to each other.The fact is that the RJD, when fighting onits own, has never been able to exceed 33.92 per cent of the vote share inBihar. But Lalu''s reluctance to arrive at a seat settlement with his centralallies had two main reasons. First, he felt that out of the 243 seats up forgrabs, the allies were asking for too much, and, that too, out of quality seats.Second, if he gave away too many seats to his allies, he would not give the RJDa fair chance of reaching the half-way mark of 122 seats on its ownstrength.Though the allies, except with the possible exception ofPaswan, would like to see Lalu come back to power, they would still like to seehim falling short of a clear majority so that they get the same type of leverageover him that he has at the Centre. Nobody would like to see an unfettered Laluclimb back to power on his own. Because, if Lalu tastes blood once, he could gofor an encore in every subsequent election.